TOC and TLB freerolls

I didn't talk about it this week because I didn't want to go there. Anyway, I had so much fun playing in the BBT2, and was thrilled to finish in the top 50 players with points (I finished 7th overall) after 27 total tournaments. My goal was to prove that I can play with the bloggers and I did. I started studying the game of poker in April of 2007 and started blogging soon after.



First the TLB freeroll. The top 50 got to play a freeroll (thank you FTP, AL, Mookie, MiamiDon, Hoy and Riggstad). Here's how I finished. I got to the final table a shortstack but was able to fold to 5th place. Lucko was brutal, running all over the table, so I decided to play tight at 9th, and it got me to 5th. Here's what I got:



So I feel like I represented myself well. I didn't get much credit for having a shot at the TOC win but I did finish in the top 5 in the freeroll. **disclaimer is that I think many of the 23 players that played in both tournaments played aggro in the freeroll early so they could focus on the main TOC tourney.


Congrats to lucko and whiskigirl who were in the TOC at the same table while heads up in the freeroll. Impressive! Lucko finshed first and played amazing at the final table.



Second lets talk about the big one. The Tournament of Champions with the $18,000 first place prize. Winner take all, no prize to second.

In first 5 hands I had AA KK and QQ. I Figured I was burning all my luck early.



See here where I am in 2nd place (which pays the same as 27th). I was just dominating the tables! ;)




Here I win the first hand uncontested:





Two hands later I re-raise a raiser and win pre-flop. I am on fire now....





I win this one again pre-flop. First 5 hands have been good so far:





Then Astin was shortstacked and I played this hand with him:


Full Tilt Poker Game #4570734298: Battle of the Bloggers Final (30643270), Table 1 - 20/40 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:20:13 ET - 2007/12/20
Seat 1: cmitch (2,450)
Seat 2: Astin (1,900)
Seat 3: Fuel55 (2,560)
Seat 4: jamyhawk (3,075)
Seat 5: PirateLawyer (3,225)
Seat 6: huntsvegas (2,850)
Seat 7: XxMagiciaNxX (2,750)
Seat 8: cracknaces (4,495)
Seat 9: whiskigrl (3,695)
Fuel55 posts the small blind of 20
jamyhawk posts the big blind of 40
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [3h 5s]<-- terrible cards
PirateLawyer folds
huntsvegas folds
XxMagiciaNxX folds
cracknaces calls 40
whiskigrl folds
cmitch folds
Astin calls 40
Fuel55: how is that i dont have 15000 chips?
Fuel55 calls 20
jamyhawk checks<-- how soon until I can fold this?
*** FLOP *** [6d 4c 4d]
Fuel55 checks
cracknaces: cause your name is not Asting
jamyhawk bets 80<--because I now have a nuts hand

cracknaces folds
Astin calls 80<--uh oh. Astin always has a hand.
Fuel55 folds
*** TURN *** [6d 4c 4d] [7h]<--Gin!
jamyhawk checks<--see if I can get Astin all in. Astin bets 200
jamyhawk calls 200<--slow play to no pay?
*** RIVER *** [6d 4c 4d 7h] [Qd]<--potential flush. Damn, missed that on the turn. Should have reraised.
cracknaces: Fuelstin
cmitch: of course im bleeding here and doing well in the other freeroll :)
jamyhawk bets 720<--Have to bet enough here so he can't bluff the flush. If I bet small and he goes all in, I don't know that I can call with flush hitting the river. If he comes over me now, I know my straight is no good.
Astin folds<--woooo hoooo.
Uncalled bet of 720 returned to jamyhawk
jamyhawk mucks
jamyhawk wins the pot (720)


Full Tilt Poker Game #4570802292: Battle of the Bloggers Final (30643270), Table 1 - 25/50 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:26:20 ET - 2007/12/20
Seat 1: cmitch (2,150)
Seat 2: Astin (1,525)
Seat 3: Fuel55 (2,725)
Seat 4: jamyhawk (3,570)
Seat 5: PirateLawyer (3,165)
Seat 6: huntsvegas (2,850)
Seat 7: XxMagiciaNxX (2,985)
Seat 8: cracknaces (4,395)
Seat 9: whiskigrl (3,635), is sitting out
Fuel55 posts the small blind of 25
jamyhawk posts the big blind of 50
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [6c 6h]
whiskigrl has reconnected
whiskigrl has returned
PirateLawyer raises to 150<--an early position raise. I put him on high pair. Maybe AK, AQ. But probably JJ or QQ.
huntsvegas folds
XxMagiciaNxX folds
cracknaces folds
Fuel55: its stinky down there
whiskigrl has 15 seconds left to act
whiskigrl folds
cmitch folds
Astin folds
Fuel55 folds
cracknaces: the danl position sounds sorta ghey no?
Fuel55: he is cracking under so much expectation
jamyhawk calls 100<--I feel the odds are good enough to set mine here.
*** FLOP *** [8h 6s 9d]<--flopped sets are GOLD!
jamyhawk checks<--check my monster to a known aggressor.
PirateLawyer bets 250<--expected
jamyhawk raises to 800<--check raise as planned. don't want ghey straight filling in.
cracknaces: he hasnt gotten AA or KK yet, its a record
Fuel55: here we go!
PirateLawyer has 15 seconds left to act
PirateLawyer raises to 1,650<--now I have to figure overpair. No way he is on 10 7. Maybe AK but most likely range is 1010-AA and A9.
Fuel55: ALLL EEEEEEEEEEN
jamyhawk raises to 3,420, and is all in<--Fuel is my master. Fuel is my master.
PirateLawyer calls 1,365, and is all in<--YES!
jamyhawk shows [6c 6h]
PirateLawyer shows [8c 8s]<--NOOOOOOOOO
Uncalled bet of 405 returned to jamyhawk<--at least I am still in it.
Fuel55: sick
*** TURN *** [8h 6s 9d] [7d]
*** RIVER *** [8h 6s 9d 7d] [4s]
Fuel55: sick
jamyhawk shows three of a kind, Sixes
Fuel55: sick
PirateLawyer shows three of a kind, Eights
PirateLawyer wins the pot (6,355) with three of a kind, Eights
Fuel55: sick

Seat 4: jamyhawk (big blind) showed [6c 6h] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes
Seat 5: PirateLawyer showed [8c 8s] and won (6,355) with three of a kind, Eights





I replayed the hand over and over, and I suppose I could have slowed down the betting on flop. With possible straight hitting the turn, I might have saved some chips. Then again, I know Piratelawyer to be very aggressive, so he may have controlled the betting on the turn. I don't think I am laying down the hand to him in that position. I really put him on an over pair. Would you have laid that down?


Very next hand, I figure I could pick up some chips. Maybe someone calls with KJ? All in pre-flop, I'll appear on tilt.





OOPS. I'm out 27th. First one out.... Ick. But I guess CHAD called it right: I got coolered early.







So see. If I can do it, so can you. I mean, if I can make it into the TOC, so can you. Come try it out next round.
CONGRATULATIONS to Jeciimd for taking down 1st and representing us in the Aussie Millions! He truly put on a clinic, winning two seats of the 27 available, finishing first in total points and then taking down the Main Event. Impressive! Watch his site for updates on his trip to Australia.



Until then, stay patient. . .

Queen of the Mookie

Congratulations to LJ for taking down the Mookie last night. Click on her name to go congratulate her yourself. She played a tough heads up match to get the win! Way to go!

Great job to GCox25 for finishing 2nd. He was really playing well also.



At my starting table I had MiamiDon on my immediate left and Cracknaces on my right. They are two very aggressive players and both have knocked me out of tournaments before. I managed to hold my own and within 30 minutes got moved to another table. I played fairly solid poker, but never managed to chip up much. I would go down to 1,000 then back up to 3000.



With about 3500 in chips, I got moved back to a table with MiamiDon now on my immediate right. I know Don likes to steal blinds, ESPECIALLY mine, so I would have to be careful not to get into trouble with him. One particular hand, he min raised my BB and I made a loose call with J4 sooooooted. The flop comes J high -no 4 but I have 4 to the flush. Don bets out and I re-raise him with my TPWK. Don comes back over the top all in. Now I know Don likes to put the pressure on. I put his range here to include QK same suit as the board, QQ, or a flopped set. I know he could also have trash but calling his all in would end my tournament and I can't see going out on Top Pair with a 4 kicker, so I let it go. He shows J8, so I was outkicked. I have about 1000 in chips again.



I tighten up and manage to chip back up to nearly 4000 in chips. On this next hand, Don is UTG+2 with about 5000 in chips and it folds to him. He makes a pot sized bet which is about 15% of his stack. I have AA and decide to call to see if I can either get another player in or trap Don. Usually, I will raise this hand to isolate, but given Don's aggressive play, I wanted to mix it up. Everyone else folds and we are heads up, which is perfect for me. The flop comes rags 9 high no flush or straight. Don bets out the pot. I don't think I could lay this down anyway, but his large bet assured me he didn't have the set. I went all in, he called and flipped over 1010. The 10 on the river sends me home. As quick as that and I am gone. Sucked, but I felt like I was playing pretty well, and I am not getting out of that hand without putting all my chips in against Don. I mean, he will put the pressure on if I tried to control the pot size anyway.



In the Dookie, we played limit Hold'em turbo. Made it to the final table where basically everyone there had an M of 5 or lower due to the turbo blind increases. I finished 5th with no major suckouts or brilliant plays that I remember. I'm sure I sucked out a few times, but every hand seemed like you were pot committed as soon as you entered it.



Stay patient...

Guess-the-google

Have you played this? If you like puzzles or riddles, it is pretty freaking cool. The game pops up a bunch of images and you have to guess what word search in google will return those images. Give it a try. Very fun. However, it is evenEV. ;)

Grinding it up at Bodog

More grinding at the low levels for me with Bodog. I had about $25 in the account to start the evening so decided to play $10 max and see what we can do. I couldn't believe the donkness.

I called a 4x preflop raise with 88, hit my set on the flop that 3 of us saw. 1st out bets into me 1/2 the pot, I call and other player calls. Next card is an Ace. 1st player bets 1/4 of the pot. Again I call and the other player calls. Next card is a nothing, and first player bets out 1/6th of the pot. I think for awhile (for show- no straight or flush possibilities) and then go all in for a little more than twice the size of the pot (overbet). Player behind me thinks briefly and calls, 1st player folds. He shows a pair of Aces with his STRONG 6 kicker and I flip over my set of snowmen and double up my stack.

A few hands later, I get A10, raise preflop and get two callers. Flop comes QJ7. 1st player checks, I check and it checks around. Next card is a K filling in my straight with no flush available yet. 1st player raises, I reraise all in and get all his chips when he shows his slow played set of Queens.

I continued to run the table as I would control the pot sizes when I didn't have the nuts, and maximized my winnings when I did. And it helped that at the .05/.10 level, Acerag was considered the nuts by my opponents. I took plenty of hands with AK and/or two pair when an Ace was on the board.

My point is if you play patient, wait for the right hands and bet them hard, you can make money at these levels. I think the biggest thing that kept me winning was that I tried to keep small pots when I was playing TPWeak Kicker or just a pair and a flush or straight filled in. Not losing all your chips to the calling station who hits his 1 outer on the river is key. You don't go all in with AK and A high flop. But you do push and watch what your opponent does.

Fortunately for me, I left the table with my 3 1/2 buy in profit. Unfortunately, this all started late (son's Christmas Recital was last night), so I didn't get to play in $mokkee's BODONKEY tourney. Sorry I missed it last night -sounds like it would have been fun, especially with Buddydank on. The only reason I got on Bodog was to play in $mokkee's tourney and I haven't made one yet. Oh well, keep trying.

Stay patient...

Funny or Pathetic

I spent almost 45 minutes trying to get the tree to stay in it's stand. The stand is easily 10 years old, and worthless. Yet every year, I say "I can make it work", and then cuss my way through 45 minutes of lying on the floor jamming different shaped blocks in, and cutting branches to try to get the tree to stand (NO -not "make it straight"; get it to stand up without falling).

So the babies go to bed, the teenagers have to go do homework, and I am frustrated. No decorating the traditional way. I decided to make sure the tree got trimmed. You decide: Funny? Or Pathetic?

Replay

Check it out. Fulltilt is letting the people left from Thurs night play a freeroll tonight to see who gets the TOC seat. How cool is that? I mean that we get to replay. How many other people are replaying what they lost on Thursday night? Al must really have some pull over there.
Come rail me tonight. Freeroll for a TOC seat. Money has already been paid out. Should see some really sick beats tonight!

Congratulations to Fuel55 and JuliusGoat. They won their TOC seats through the writing contest. See you all there!

Mullet-licious

Photo is of me and thecloserx5 at our annual holiday party. He may give GCox25 a run for his money.

technical difficulties

30 something out of 52ish of token frenzy with 40 spots paid and i think 3rd out of about 10ish of riverchasers with 18 spots paid. And then no more FTP. This is when I really wish I was only playing live. Then again I couldn't help my 6 year old who is home sick and throwing up if I was at the casino. . .

Sucks when you get on a roll and then no more FTP..... AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHHH!

Stay patient????

Congratulations to Emptyman for taking down the Mookie. I felt I was card dead all night. I pushed chips back and forth early on, mostly with bluffs or semi-bluffs. People started calling me or re-raising me too frequently, so I decided to switch to a ROCK and then went for what seemed like forever without anything. The highest pocket pair I remember was 88. I raised it, and someone re-raised me all in. I folded and instead decided to push all in a few orbits later with A9sooooooted. Ooops. I got a caller and that was enough to know I was beat.

I played terrible last night in every game I was in. I played the Tier II token Frenzy, built up an above average chip stack, then blew it all on a bluff. Caller tanked for a while as he only had me covered by a few hundred chips, and then called my all in with second pair weak kicker. That was enough to eliminate me. I guess I want that call 90% of the time, but that was how I was running last night. He called an all in with 2nd pair 7 kicker! I guess that is what I get for being the idiot -I mean donkey.

I played 6 more SNG's last night to see just how bad I was running (only cashed in 1 of them). Mostly donkey played again. I was feeling very confident in my play up until this week -especially when I dumped all my chips in the MATH to lucko. That turned me around and I haven't been able to get back right since. Come to think of it, that was the exact moment things went sour. I was easily going to cash and I shoved two hands in a row to exit the tournament on the bubble. My head is still spinning from that. What a stupid move on my part. Of course, alcohol has been involved this week. I tend to make smarter moves when we are out of beer at home. I mean, my SNG winnings graph looks like a seismograph during a 6.0 earthquake. It's pathetic.

I need to take a break, read a book or two, and then come back refreshed. Unfortunately, we have two more BBT2 tourneys to play and then the TOC and Leaderboard Freeroll next week. Oh well. Maybe I can figure it out before next week. I do know that everyone expects me to be dead money in those two tournaments next week. Maybe I can prove someone wrong.

Tournament: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour

When: TONIGHT! 21:00 ET

Game: NLHE Deepstack

Buyin: $10+1

Password: Riverchasers

Tournament: Blogger Big Game

When: Sunday, December 16th, 21:30 ET

Game: NLHE Superstack

Buyin: $69+6 or Tier II token

Password: donkey

Special thanks to Mookie for the Banner...

And Don't forget:

MATH Final table #2

I just wanted to start off with this hand because I got a lot of grief over it. Tell me what you would have done....

Full Tilt Poker Game #4463335511: Mondays at the Hoy (32953837), Table 2 - 120/240 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:43:55 ET - 2007/12/10
Seat 1: Loretta8 (2,827) <--short stack at the table...
Seat 2: DaBag (5,700)
Seat 3: jmathewson_III (10,645)
Seat 4: twoblackaces (6,413)
Seat 5: jamyhawk (19,260) <--chip leader at the table. . .
Seat 6: lucko21 (17,369)
Loretta8 antes 25
DaBag antes 25
jmathewson_III antes 25
twoblackaces antes 25
jamyhawk antes 25
lucko21 antes 25
twoblackaces posts the small blind of 120
jamyhawk posts the big blind of 240 <--I am in the BB
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [5s Ks] <--not a good hand, but not bad for BB.
lucko21 folds
Loretta8 raises to 654 <--short stack trying to steal?
DaBag folds
jmathewson_III folds
twoblackaces folds
jamyhawk raises to 1,200 <--raise for a re-steal...

Loretta8 raises to 2,802, and is all in <--crap. did not want to see this. a call: yes. a fold: yes. re-re-raise: no. Now I have to make a decision.
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act
jamyhawk calls 1,602 <--I figure I have two live cards. Short stack is playing Ax right? maybe a pp under K's. Hopefully J9 sooted. My cards being sooted makes no difference to me. I play this knowing I take a small hit to my stack if I lose, hoping K high is good or hit a 6 outer against Acerag.
Loretta8 shows [Qs Qc]
jamyhawk shows [5s Ks]
*** FLOP *** [2h 8s Kd] <--All that I needed.
*** TURN *** [2h 8s Kd] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [2h 8s Kd 6c] [7s]
lucko21: :(
Loretta8 shows a pair of Queens
jamyhawk shows a pair of Kings
jamyhawk wins the pot (5,874) with a pair of Kings <--So I suckout. I maintain that every winner in these tournaments sucks out at least twice.
Loretta8 stands up
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 5,874 Rake 0
Board: [2h 8s Kd 6c 7s]
Seat 1: Loretta8 showed [Qs Qc] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 2: DaBag folded before the Flop
Seat 3: jmathewson_III (button) folded before the Flop
Seat 4: twoblackaces (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: jamyhawk (big blind) showed [5s Ks] and won (5,874) with a pair of Kings
Seat 6: lucko21 folded before the Flop

At this point, Lucko starts ragging on me for a terrible play. Donkey move. Blah, blah, blah. Thank you Snakster for sticking up for me, but the damage is done. Lucko puts me on tilt. I should have just stopped right there and regrouped, but I am tilting hard as several observers are also critical of my play.

The very next hand (or close to it), I am dealt AJsooooooooted. I raise from UTG. Everyone folds to the SB who raises and then the BB re-raises all in. I had both players covered but decided to fold as I would have risked almost half my stack on AJ. I don't remember the first raisers cards but Twoblackaces had KK. A on the flop and I would have won, but Twoblackaces takes it with KK. I could have taken two players out. I am cursing for folding AJ, and Lucko already has me tilted. AAAAAAAAAAAArgggggghhhhhhhh.

MY BAD.

Now I am on SUPERtilt.

I watch this happen:

THE MIGHTY AJ!

Then I lose a big hand here. I should have learned right here.

So I push all in here preflop to push back on lucko's raise. He double ups on me. Did I mention I'm on SUPERTILT?

The very next hand I get the NUTZ: AJ

I went from 2nd with 7 players left to out 6th in just a few hands. No patience. No FAWKING patience. Goes against everything I always tell everyone else. Stay patient! Go ask Schaubs. AJ is a crap hand....

Great job to LJ for making it Heads up but she couldn't finish out against twoblackaces. Both are great players. Congrats to twoblackaces for getting into the TOC.

So I figured I should go tilt off some more chips before going to bed:

This hand was the final hand for me in a 9 player SNG when we both went all in preflop....

Then I play an 18 player : top 6 get paid. All in pre-flop.

Not my favorite night. I did win a $26 token. Finished down overall for the night on my bankroll. But I did get me some points for the MATH finish. How 'bout that RecessRampage?

Stay patient... And if you see me at the tables, remind me to STAY PATIENT!

Chip and a chair

Down to my last $5.77 on bodog, I decided to just tighten up and play PPO Poker (Premiums and Position Only). Friday night, I opened up a table and quickly ran that $5.77 down to $1.93. How fun. But, as expected, I finally started getting some cards and at the $10 max buy in tables that means guaranteed double ups. The call all-ins on draws and any pair mentality of my opponents, helped me build my balance up to just over $23 in less than 1 hour.

The most interesting thing I took out of this was: should I be playing PPO Poker more often? At least in ring games. Normally, I prefer more of a "Hit and Run" style, meaning I will Hit the table with LAG play until someone challenges me, then run over to playing Rock Tight. After hitting a few big hands with the Rock Tight, then Run back over to LAG play. And if I ever see all of the players turn over in a short period of time, RUN back over to the style of play. This works at the .25/.50 and the .50/1 tables on FTP.

PPO Poker is probably more for the micro limits anyway(.5/.10 was the $10 max). I will just keep grinding it out. Then once the BBT2 is over, I can start playing in $mokee's Bodonkey tourney. I have found the competition to be weaker on Bodog so far. I say that as I ran my first $100 there down to $5 in grand style. But we all know you have to be able to play through some bad nights (notice I said bad nights, not bad beats - bad nights allows for stupid play on my part).

Don't forget: Only 4 spots left in the TOC. If you want a shot at a freeroll for an $18K prize, come out an play on FTP.

Tournament: Mondays at the Hoy
When: Every Monday. 10pm ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $24+2
Password: hammer

Tournament: The Mookie
When: Every Wednesday. 10pm ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $10+1
Password: vegas1

Tournament: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour
When: Every Thursday. 21:00 ET
Game: NLHE DeepstackBuyin: $10+1
Password: Riverchasers

Tournament: Blogger Big Game
When: Sunday, December 16th, 21:30 ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $69+6 or Tier II token
Password: donkey

Stay patient...

A sad story

I have no relatives whatsoever anywhere near Omaha, Nebraska. My thoughts and prayers go out to the families touched by the devastation there.

Don't make fun of my young looks

Hawkette shot this picture of me last night playing in the Mookie. You can see by my smile that it was before I ran my mighty 44 into 123skidoo's AT o/s. I was shortstacked and he was not, so no big deal. And don't make fun of me for putting my Soco in a sippy cup. It keeps me from gulping too much and I never spill a drop.

Don't forget about the Riverchasers tonight. Only 5 more shots to get your seat in the TOC.

Hope all the bloggers in Vegas are having a KICKASS time!

Stay patient....

More mortgage stuff

GSF pointed out to me yesterday that we have not seen signs we are at a "bottom" yet for buying real estate. He also linked a terrific graph that you can see here. I actually took some of the indicators out to make it less cluttered and to specify my points. So here is how I looked at it:

The top red line is the 30 year mortgage rates and the yellow line similar to it is the 10 year treasury rates. As I said yesterday, the 10 year treasury is a good indicator of the 30 year rates. However, you can see that in the last few months there was an inverse relationship between the two that I think is from the lenders beginning to compensate for all of their losses from foreclosures. That has settled down a bit and the end result will be that the 10 year and 30 year rates will still be closely paralleled but with a larger spread between them.


You can see the 10 year is within 50 basis points (1/2 a percent) of it's 15 year low. And the 30 year mortgage rate is within 100 basis points (1%) of it's 15 year low (if the graph were updated to the changes we've seen in the last week, you would see it is within 50 basis points now).


New home starts have dropped faster than they have in 15 years and are the lowest they have been in 9 years. And median home prices just made the sharpest decline we've seen in 15 years.


We may not be at the absolute "bottom" yet, but I am certain we are seeing signs that we are close. Once we start to rebound is usually when you see the signs that we WERE at bottom a few months ago. A lot of the builders I have talked to felt that this spring will be the turning point, but now they are saying the end of 2008 (after the election). Either way, I am comfortable buying now for the long term.


Whatever you do, I hope you are +EV.


Stay patient...

30 year mortgage rates

If you do not own a house, find a way to buy one now! The market is prime for buyers. The mortgage rates are still close to the all time lows that we saw in the summer of 2003. The national average mortgage rates have not been below 6% since October of 2005 and we are going to go back into the below 6% rates this week.

This chart is a good way to monitor the 30 year fixed rates. This is the 10 year treasury notes. The long term lending rates follow almost identical to what the 10 year note does. Lately, the 30 year rates have been lagging behind the 10 year moves, but I believe that is just an effort by the lenders to recoup some of their losses from all the foreclosures. My point is, if you want to know if rates will be increasing or decreasing, watch the 10 year treasury.
(Unfortunately, this chart looks about like my poker winnings this month, but that is another post...)


As you can see, the 10 year treasury note has not been this low since 2005, hence the 30 year rates at a 2 year low. To check the 10 year daily click here. Please note, the 30 year rates DO NOT EQUAL the 10 year rates. The 10 year is dropping below 4% as the 30 year rates are dropping below 6%.


On December 11th, the Federal Reserve will once again cut the Federal Funds Rate. This is a short term lending rate used for banks and not directly tied to 30 year fixed rates. The last two times that the Fed cut those rates, the 30 year rates spiked upwards. They did settle back down, but don't think that those cuts will immediately mean a drop in long term rates.


With the upcoming election, I don't foresee any big movements in lending rates, as no-one wants to be blamed for economy swings (at least ones that can be perceived as bad). I do know that this is a great time to buy. And with foreclosures at all time highs, you can find great deals. I know of new construction houses selling for 25% less than where they were 1 year ago. That's a $400,000 house selling for $300,000. Pretty amazing. And that is just in the Midwest. Coastal regions are seeing much bigger swings in value.


If you have any specific questions, feel free to let me know.


Buying real estate today for a long term hold is +EV.

You must buy a Wii

First of all. Do NOT forget the MATH: 6hand NLHE tonight. Here are the dirties:
Tournament: Mondays at the Hoy
When: Every Monday. 10pm ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $24+2
Password: hammer

I might not be in attendance tonight as I am very sleepy from the weekend and feel a cold coming on. Three late nights were playing poker and Big Brain Academy. If you do not have a Wii. Find one and buy it! It is the most revolutionary game system since the Atari. I cannot say enough good things about it. I know the graphics are ten times better on the PS3 and XBOX, but no way you will have as much fun as playing the Wii. You want to sit in a dark room and shoot people: don't buy a Wii. You want to play games while standing and cheering and a whole group of people are having fun: buy a Wii.

Pimpin' some bloggers.
Kaja has the funniest post here. Check out the Best Poker Screenshot Ever!
Of course it started with JJOK's Hardest earned money ever!
Check out the newest poker blogger and give him a shout: Snakster.
Best hand histories ever: Fuel55

Hope everyone going to Vegas has a great time! Wish I was going, but have to save those days off for my trip to Australia (that I'm going to win in the TOC).

Stay Patient...

Presto for Fuel55

I raised preflop and he smooth called. I raised after flop and he re-raised all in. Gotta love it!

Favorite movie quote of all time:

Lester! You're going to spill beer on the couch!

Happy Friday to YOU!

Why is it that the people coming out of fast food restaurants are always overweight? Coincidence? I think not.

I will tell you why the Boy Scouts are so ghey. Because during football season, they schedule their major meetings (Den meetings or something like that) on Sundays at 5pm. You have to leave your house before the end of the first half of the late games and get home after the night game has started. What in the world is wrong with a Saturday meeting? Or a Tuesday or Wednesday?

Today is the last day of the month and the last day of our "sales year". I officially finished the year ranked #1 salesman. Yay me. I am Dwight Schrute. OK, not really. By the way. Dwight has his own blog. And it is pretty detailed. How intense is the internet getting when a fictional character has his own blog? I mean, I am reading the thoughts of someone who does not exist. Or does he exist because I see his character and his character has thoughts outside of the the show he is on? How bored do you have to be to read a fictional character's fictitious blog? Anyway, I feel a bit of stress relieved today since I am done with this year's contest for top salesman. Start it back up again next month. Hopefully my 40% drop in production since I started reading poker blogs won't keep me from repeating next year. Hip Hip Hooray.

Some of the poker bloggers I have been reading are so effin funny! I mean really. Entertaining! I need to update my blogroll because there have been so many more I have been visiting since BBT2 started. I have to say the BBT2 has been so fun, but also time consuming. I play in more tournaments or at least more nights a week than I did before, and I read a lot more to catch up with people's thoughts on the night before's game.

Thanks again to Al and everyone else who is making BBT2 happen. It has been fun!

Hope you have a GREAT weekend!
Stay patient....

TPTK good?

Full Tilt Poker Game #4340902560: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour (30641954), Table 10 - 150/300 Ante 25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:48:20 ET - 2007/11/29
Seat 2: twoblackaces (20,927)<--table chip leader
Seat 3: heffmike (4,805)
Seat 4: jamyhawk (8,785)<--2nd chip stack at the table.
Seat 5: snakster (3,525)
Seat 6: BamBamCan (4,675)
Seat 7: AlCantHang (5,270)
Seat 8: NumbBono (5,925)
Seat 9: dino_burger (5,340)
twoblackaces antes 25
heffmike antes 25
jamyhawk antes 25
snakster antes 25
BamBamCan antes 25
AlCantHang antes 25
NumbBono antes 25
dino_burger antes 25
jamyhawk posts the small blind of 150
snakster posts the big blind of 300
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [Ah Qd]<--I like this starting hand so I will be raising.
BamBamCan folds
AlCantHang folds
NumbBono folds
dino_burger folds
twoblackaces raises to 1,200<--likes to steal.
heffmike folds
jamyhawk raises to 2,200<--re-steal.
snakster folds
twoblackaces calls 1,000<--uh oh. tread cautiously.
*** FLOP *** [Js 4d Qh]<--I like, but not love. JJ, QQ, KK and AA beat me. Otherwise, I think I am golden. But QQ-AA re-raise pre-flop, right?
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act
jamyhawk bets 2,500<--I did pause which looked weak. I guess I was assuming I was ahead by now. I have to push forward unafraid of four possible hands that have me beat.
twoblackaces raises to 5,000<--now if you have a monster, you call my raise. re-raise is a draw, right? Well, not really. I should probably fold here. What do you think?
jamyhawk raises to 6,560, and is all in<--a call is pot committed anyway.
twoblackaces calls 1,560
jamyhawk shows [Ah Qd]
twoblackaces shows [Qc Kc]<--Holy crap! I made a dumb call but I am ahead.
*** TURN *** [Js 4d Qh] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [Js 4d Qh 9s] [Ks]<--2 outer on river? I probably shouldn't have been in this deep anyway. And I put myself all in against the biggest stack at the table. Dumb.
jamyhawk shows a pair of Queens
twoblackaces shows two pair, Kings and Queens
twoblackaces wins the pot (18,020) with two pair, Kings and Queens
jamyhawk stands up



Then I decided to get into the token frenzy and try to get into another pot while ahead. Evidently, not a good idea.


Full Tilt Poker Game #4341083742: $26 Token Frenzy (32365273), Table 18 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:06:06 ET - 2007/11/29
Seat 1: DoubleTurds (1,540)
Seat 2: jamyhawk (1,090)
Seat 3: ACEYDEWY (4,060)
Seat 4: Billy1212 (1,130)
Seat 5: Tkach 5 (3,870)
Seat 6: pedram0007 (2,100)
Seat 7: strohsix (2,030)
Seat 9: JJ4LSU (1,615)
jamyhawk posts the small blind of 40
ACEYDEWY posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [2h Ks]
Billy1212 has 15 seconds left to act
Billy1212 calls 80
Tkach 5 folds
pedram0007 calls 80
strohsix folds
JJ4LSU calls 80
DoubleTurds folds
jamyhawk calls 40<--pot odds. have to call with ATC.
ACEYDEWY checks
*** FLOP *** [Kc Th 4s]<--I have a piece but terrible kicker.
jamyhawk bets 250<--let's see where I am at.
ACEYDEWY folds
Billy1212 calls 250<-- slow playing monster? or drawing? these are the only two options I see here. KJ raises. Everyone limped in so no AK. K10 would raise also.
pedram0007 folds
JJ4LSU folds
*** TURN *** [Kc Th 4s] [Jh]
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act
jamyhawk bets 300<--see where I am although I am basically pot committed to a re-raise.
Billy1212 raises to 800, and is all in<--I just can't buy he is ahead of me here. I may be drawing dead, but I think any King is ahead here. I will call.
veritas sits down
veritas adds 1,515
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act
jamyhawk calls 460, and is all in
Billy1212 shows [Qs Jd]<--I was right. WOOO Hooo
jamyhawk shows [2h Ks]
Uncalled bet of 40 returned to Billy1212
*** RIVER *** [Kc Th 4s Jh] [9s]<--He had 13 outs. I don't blame him. Just sucks to be ahead going in and lose after only 1 more card.
Billy1212 shows a straight, King high
jamyhawk shows a pair of Kings
Billy1212 wins the pot (2,420) with a straight, King high
jamyhawk stands up

Another final table in the Mookie

I final tabled the Mookie. It was my 6th final table in 16 tries but still no win. Gotta keep working to get the profile. I was doing pretty well last night when I ran AQ all in pre-flop to the mighty A10. The 10 beat me with a straight filling in on the river and I lost half my stack. No worries, though as the very next hand was QQ and my all in was called by AA. Those beeeetches have not been very nice to me lately. Better luck next time.

I felt I played a very solid game last night, without a single suckout. That's right, not one. I was ahead going in to every race. And they all held up, until the final two hands. I guess it was just my lucky night -until I went out. Oh well.

Congratulations to RecessRampage for taking it down! Only a few TOC spots left and he got one last night. Click on his name to check out how he did it.

I am meeting with a real estate agent tonight about putting my house up for sale. Hawkette set up the meeting with no regard to the Riverchasers tournament. ; ) Just kidding. She is so cool about my poker that I could tell her to deal with the agent on her own and let me play, and she would. But I will be attending that meeting, so GL to everyone tonight. If you didn't know, here are the details:
Tournament: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour
When: Every Thursday. 21:00 ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $10+1
Password: Riverchasers

Staying Patient

No blog needed to play. Come out and play for a chance to get a seat in the Tournament of Champions. And make sure to tune in to The Best Poker Radio Show on the Internet.

I have to say congrats to Fuel55 for his cash in the BC Poker Championships Main Event. He will tell you he is disappointed he didn't finish higher, but 12 out of 664 in a $2500 buy in is very good. Please check out his site and congratulate him too.

I haven't posted much lately because I have had several down sessions in the last week. I have cashed in a few SNG's but mostly lost on the cash tables. I am trying to really step back and evaluate my strengths and weaknesses as I want to be at the top of my game for the TOC (in which I do have a seat).

I know I have said this before, but it is worth repeating: I need to stay patient. Many times, when I lose a hand that I was ahead going in, I tilt. Sometimes only slightly. Sometimes it is bad; really bad! But when I look back at my winning sessions versus my losing sessions, I realize that the losing sessions are when I tilt and start loosening up my play. I even try to over-bluff and that is just plain stupid on the Internet. Let's face it, few donkeys at the .25/.50 levels are folding top pair on the river, even after a flush or straight is possible. So you can't bluff like you have it. Top pair with ANY kicker is calling down to the river most of the time. So, you have to play solid poker.

My winning sessions have been after I play patient, trying to limit the pot sizes on my losing hands and maximize my gains on winning hands. If you don't have the nuts, and your opponent is acting like they do: THEY DO. Sure, you will get bluffed out once in a while, but if you are keeping the pots small that you lose, you will come out +EV. How many times do you see people calling your pre-flop raise with K7o/s? A lot on the Internet anywhere under the $1/$2 levels. But K7 is gold with a K79 flop to your AK. And that's OK, just remember that the donkey betting into you after that flop probably has your AK beat. Keep the pot small, take your lumps and then get him back when you hit your set or straight. Because he will call you down with TPany kicker.

Check out a great blog here and a great story here. Hope everyone is enjoying the holiday season.

Stay patient...

Tournament: Mondays at the Hoy
When: Every Monday. 10pm ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $24+2
Password: hammer

Tournament: The Mookie
When: Every Wednesday. 10pm ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $10+1
Password: vegas1

Tournament: Riverchasers Online Poker Tour
When: Every Thursday. 21:00 ET
Game: NLHE Deepstack
Buyin: $10+1
Password: Riverchasers

Do NOT try this at home

It would take 41 bottles of Miller Lite to kill me

I'm pretty sure I'm safe drinking Miller Lite.

Should have folded KK (Part VI)

Actually I did. Wouldn't you?





Grinding it out on Bodog. 50% or more players seeing the flop is not uncommon. I have run a few bad sessions (QQ into AA, set into straight, etc.)

Circus Circus in Saint Charles, Saint Charles

I took the kids (the 3 that are 6 and under) to the Circus to Save Lives this weekend. I have to say first of all, that it is a shame that so many kids are stuck in front on TV's so much, when there are opportunities to see so much more. We saw animals, like you would at the zoo, clowns, intense high wire performances, motorcycles (my 2 year old's favorite) in a ball, and jugglers of all kinds. When exactly, do you decide that you could have a great career if you could only learn to rotate a spinning fireball with your feet while laying on your back? Anyway, the kids had a blast, and I was thrilled that they weren't cooped up in the house. Please, don't forget to get your children out of the house. Even if it is to play football in the backyard.

I also wanted to say thanks to The Figg Tree Foundation for giving us the tickets. They make a generous donation each year to the Circus and get tickets in return. They then give the tickets to anyone that has helped raise money for the foundation. We, of course, made our donations at the toy stands and concessions.

If you have any connection to someone with colon cancer, please visit the Figg Tree website.

When do you leave a table?

Do you leave up 2x buy in?
Do you keep pushing and leave 2.5x buy in?
Do you go for as long as possible, maybe 4x buy in?
I usually stay too long. I have 2.5 buy in and work it back down to 1.5 buy in... I never just go endlessly making money... What makes you decide when to leave the table? (other than time constraints)....

Overbets that don't work

Full Tilt Poker Game #4235484182: Table Nolan - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:07:04 ET - 2007/11/20
Seat 1: jamyhawk ($166.60)
Seat 3: bb4242 ($86.50)
Seat 4: drunkfreshman ($88.95)
Seat 5: Rostamthegreat ($45.05)
Seat 7: Phideauxe ($111.60), is sitting out
Seat 8: Cmak1013 ($101.60)
Seat 9: supercute11 ($115.50)
Cmak1013 posts the small blind of $0.50
supercute11 posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [7s 7d]
jamyhawk raises to $2<--UTG with pocket pair sucks in a cash game!
bb4242 has 15 seconds left to act
bb4242 calls $2<--someone's coming for the ride.
drunkfreshman folds
Rostamthegreat folds
Cmak1013 folds
supercute11 folds
*** FLOP *** [Js 2h Ks]<--swing and a miss.
jamyhawk bets $4<--Can I buy this pot?
bb4242 calls $4<--Uh oh.
*** TURN *** [Js 2h Ks] [7c]<--anyone for GIN?
jamyhawk bets $13.50<--stick with the aggression
bb4242 calls $13.50<--I like it!
*** RIVER *** [Js 2h Ks 7c] [Jc]<--If he has a Jack I cash big here. If not I don't think he is calling much. A king still has to fold. No matter what my bet. Let's go for the home run and hope has a Jack...
jamyhawk bets $147.10, and is all in
bb4242 has 15 seconds left to act
bb4242 folds
Uncalled bet of $147.10 returned to jamyhawk
jamyhawk shows [7s 7d] a full house, Sevens full of Jacks
jamyhawk wins the pot ($38.50)
Oh well.....

Stay patient...

Have some fun

First of all, congratulations to SnailTrax . Finished 2nd in last weeks MATH, but followed it up this week with a 1st place win! WTG! That is impressive.

Sitting around tonight after my donk out of the MATH, playing some cash games and having a few beers with Hawkette. I love hanging out with my wife. She is so fun when she is railing me in cash games. Anyway, I decided to step up a level for a bit. See what happens. What would you do in these hands?

Hand 1:

Full Tilt Poker Game #4234869531: Table Nolan - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:50:02 ET - 2007/11/20
Seat 1: jamyhawk ($112.70)
Seat 2: Pay To See It ($99)
Seat 3: foldthenuts4 ($32.20)
Seat 4: akdauie ($76.60)
Seat 5: 4rward ($17.45)
Seat 6: amdawn725 ($75.50)
Seat 7: LEHC1M ($98.50)
Seat 8: ptb109 ($31.50)
Seat 9: DrBass22 ($92.50)
jamyhawk posts the small blind of $0.50
Pay To See It has 5 seconds left to act
Pay To See It posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #9
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [Qh Kc]
foldthenuts4 folds
akdauie folds
4rward folds
amdawn725 folds
4rward stands up
LEHC1M folds
Rostamthegreat sits down
Rostamthegreat adds $40
ptb109 folds
DrBass22 folds
jamyhawk raises to $3<--purely a steal attempt.
Pay To See It calls $2
*** FLOP *** [Qd 7c Ks]<--ok, steal is now golden. Let's get some chips from him.
jamyhawk bets $1<--a non bet is bad. bet min and hope for re-raise.
Pay To See It calls $1<--not exactly what I wanted but building the pot is good.
*** TURN *** [Qd 7c Ks] [4s]
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act
jamyhawk bets $2<-- have to keep looking weak.
Pay To See It raises to $4<--oh so nice.
jamyhawk calls $2<--most times i raise here so i don't get clobbered by the idiot's reward on the river.
*** RIVER *** [Qd 7c Ks 4s] [5h]
jamyhawk has 15 seconds left to act<--does this still work online? pretend to be weak?
jamyhawk bets $25<--overbet to look like I missed my straight or flush draw.
Pay To See It calls $25<--It works and I win! Woo Hoo.
*** SHOW DOWN ***
jamyhawk shows [Qh Kc] two pair, Kings and Queens
Pay To See It mucks
jamyhawk wins the pot ($63) with two pair, Kings and Queens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $66 Rake $3
Board: [Qd 7c Ks 4s 5h]
Seat 1: jamyhawk (small blind) showed [Qh Kc] and won ($63) with two pair, Kings and Queens
Seat 2: Pay To See It (big blind) mucked [Kd 6h] - a pair of Kings

Just a few hands later I see this:

Full Tilt Poker Game #4234921603: Table Nolan - $0.50/$1 - No Limit Hold'em - 0:55:52 ET - 2007/11/20
Seat 1: jamyhawk ($147.65)
Seat 2: Pay To See It ($117.25)
Seat 3: foldthenuts4 ($30.70)
Seat 4: akdauie ($39.10)
Seat 5: Rostamthegreat ($37)
Seat 6: Furon ($20)
Seat 7: LEHC1M ($91.50)
Seat 8: ptb109 ($31.50), is sitting out
Seat 9: DrBass22 ($92.50)
Rostamthegreat posts the small blind of $0.50
Furon posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to jamyhawk [Qc Tc]
LEHC1M has 15 seconds left to act
LEHC1M folds
DrBass22 folds
jamyhawk calls $1<--loose play with a big chip stack.
Pay To See It folds
foldthenuts4 folds
akdauie calls $1
Rostamthegreat calls $0.50
Furon checks
*** FLOP *** [Th 3c 4s]<--me likey.
Rostamthegreat checks
Furon checks
jamyhawk bets $4<--ok, so I have have been pushing and if I don't bet here, it looks fishy. Plus, I want to know if there is an A10 out there.
akdauie calls $4<--draw call. Probably on A5.
Rostamthegreat folds
Furon raises to $8<--Really? A10 has to raise higher here. Could be K10. My read is a draw hand trying to push me out of a pair.
jamyhawk calls $4
akdauie calls $4<--This is scary too.
*** TURN *** [Th 3c 4s] [9h]
Furon bets $11, and is all in<--nothing yells strength here. Maybe a weak pair or a draw still.
jamyhawk calls $11<--Have to call.
akdauie has 15 seconds left to act
akdauie folds
Furon shows [7s Td]<--wow! no draw. Did not figure that.
jamyhawk shows [Qc Tc]
*** RIVER *** [Th 3c 4s 9h] [Js]
Furon shows a pair of Tens
jamyhawk shows a pair of Tens
jamyhawk wins the pot ($47.50) with a pair of Tens<--was kind of surprised to see a 107 call at this level, but I guess that is why I should move up to the next level and start playing there. I am not real proud of playing a QTsoooooted, but I had a read and it worked out.

Stay patient.....

Monday night Foolball

All in pre-flop. I have 1/3 the stack as emptyman. So he calls for 1/3 of his stack and says: "had to. getting 2:1 on my money." Personally, I don't make that call. But hey, I am trying to become the KOSO (King of the Suck Outs). It seems that the suckouts have been ruling lately. Would you have called off 1/3 of your stack for K7sooted? I was a 62% favorite pre-flop.



My Broncos are doing well right now... But still time for them to give it up. I actually think they can hold off the Titans this time.
But I have to say: THE WORST ANNOUNCERS IN THE HISTORY OF MNF! Hands down. Never anyone worse. And that is a big compliment to Joe Theisman. He was pretty bad. I had to
actually turn down the sound for a while tonight. Couldn't take another Tony Kornheiser story interrupted 5 times - "I'm gonna finish this story now". Ughhhh. They are YOU-GEE-ELL-WHY!

Hope you are winning. Stay patient....

Moving to Bodog

It's Monday night so tonight is the MATH (or FMATSH). Come play as we go 6max turbo. Super shove fest and I love it!

Tournament: Mondays at the Hoy

When: Every Monday. 10pm ET

Game: 6max turbo

Buyin: $24+2

Password: hammer

Now a few different things:

First, Go Check this Chica out! She cashed in FTPOS event #15. 2600+ players and she finished 24th. Very impressive.

Second, congratulations to VinNay for winning the Big Game last night and a TOC seat. Check out jeciimd, who finished 2nd. Jeci took 1st in the last Big Game and now comes back with a 2nd place finish. Another impressive run. And special kudos to my buddy TheCloserX5 who bubbled but managed to make the final table. Look out for him. He is dead set on getting into the TOC.

Third, I missed the Big Game as I had a football banquet to attend. If you followed the Friday Night Lights posts I did, you will know that attending the banquet was sure to be full of drama for me. Well, it wasn't really. The coach did make a comment on the starting running back "could never get a run for over 10 yards" that made everyone go "oooooohhhhhh". So why is he starting again? . . . Cal got All Conference Honorable Mention for Kickoff/Punt returns. Funny thing was, he had 5 Kickoff returns all year and NO punt returns. He took 2 of the 5 returns for TD's. Hopefully the coach will let him run back kickoffs next year.

Fourth, Here is the response I got from FTP about getting rakeback. I sent them 4 different e-mails over 2 months and they finally responded to the last one:

So, I have opened an account at Bodog. Smokkee has been promoting them hard so I am going to give it a try. I want to get rakeback for the ring games I am playing, especially if I start moving up to higher limits (which I am thinking about doing). I loaded in Friday night VERY easily. Simple Visa Check Card transaction and they auto loaded 10% bonus in (no playing to earn the bonus).

So far, the tables have been extremely loose. Lots of pots with most or everyone limping. Some of the tables were showing 77% of the players seeing a flop. Unfortunately, I dropped a buy in when I was holding QQ and saw a raggy flop. I jam hoping for the usual call from a small pair with crap kicker, but instead run into AA. It is not unusual to see people calling to the river with draws or top pair any kicker. You have to be careful in those situations also. Play a top pair top kicker and you can get rivered very easily at these tables. I plan to write more about my play there. I don't know the software very well (as I am used to Pokerstars and FTP only) so I haven't figured out hand histories and screen shots, and I haven't reloaded Pokertracker from my dead laptop. Hope to soon.

Hope everyone starts doing good at the tables. Seems most bloggers have been writing about bad beats lately (except these hot runners: Kajagugu, jeciimd, XxMagiciaNxX, and Astin -or at least they have been hot in the blogger tourneys).

Stay patient....