Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Should have folded KK Part VII

I thought for a bit but did end up folding. Obviously, the min bet confirmed he had an Ace. He flipped it over and showed AJ after I mucked...

Hope everyone has a safe and HAPPY THANKSGIVING!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

All. My. Friends. Know the LOW RIDER

Rates are low, low, low...

Check out these graphs. The first one is courtesy of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis . It shows the average 30 year mortgage rates since 1970. I've marked the approximate dates of the Refi Boom; a time when some people would refinance their house 2 or 3 times over the course of A year.

The second graph (courtesy of Yahoo Finance) shows the 10 year treasury rates over the last 2 years. It corresponds with the shaded area of the top graph. Mortgage rates used to parallel the 10 year treasury pretty closely. Not anymore. No one really knows right now, how to predict the rates. You can see over the last 2 months how volatile the rates have been.

The 10 year Treasury is at it's lowest point ever. EVER! Lowest ever and it is threatening to go below 3%. But the 30 year mortgage rates are NOT at their lowest points ever. I underlined the lowest point from April, 2003 in green. You can see it is still a bit lower than today's rates, yet the 10 year is at record lows. Don't get me wrong, the 30 year rates are dropping. We might see record lows soon.
The Treasury rates are low, the Fed Funds Rates are low, so the Lending Institutions (the Banks) can pass along low rates to generate more loans, to generate more spending.... However, lately the Banks have been keeping the spread wider and trying to make up for their losses by pocketing that difference rather than passing it along to the borrowers.
AND they are begging for bailout money. It's a sick mess.
One thing I do know is that spending will help. Spend, spend, spend. As a family man, father, husband, provider, etc., I am inclined to save even more now to protect what I have in a rough economy. But this economy needs cash flowing. I guess we will see what this Holiday Season brings. I hope you buy everything you want for Christmas ; )
Oh, and if you haven't done so today already, be sure to google: Elephantitus of the Nuts
Stay Patient...

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Thank you

Thank all you donkeys who called my reraise when you thought I was bluffing. Thank all you donkeys who thought going all in with 88, 99, or K10 was a good idea. Thank all you donkeys who donated.

I cashed out a part of my bankroll to pick up this new laptop: 17" "desktop replacement". The 20" laptops are out, but at 2K I figured I could slum with a 17" for awhile. The great thing about these is that they have the added keyboard numbers on the right hand side, just like you'd find on a desktop. I love that for placing my bets. For $699 it was a steal!

Stay patient...

Every little bit counts

This was a nice little score for me. I was in 4 tournaments at once and took 1st in this one with 238 players and 1st in a 45 player, but couldn't cash in the other two that both had 4figure payouts. At least taking first in 2 was a nice boost of confidence.

Stay patient....

Monday, November 17, 2008

He's done it again! Sprstoner took down the $150 rebuy for $67K this time. Check out his score here: Sprstoner Big Win

I really enjoy the rebuy tournaments and hope to see the same kind of results someday. I took down the $50 rebuy but am not quite ready for the $150's level yet.

Go congratulate Sprstoner...

Stay patient...

The First HAWK tournament

Thanks to everyone for playing. It was pretty cool to know everyone that was playing. I set up a private tournament for people from the Saint Louis area only. We had 4 players at my house: Myself (Jamyhawk), My wife (Hawkette), My neighbor (Andybel142), and my son (Big0face). Here's how it looked:

It was pretty funny when my neighbor pushed all in on my son and he was dying to look around at his laptop and see if he should call or not.

Bowie 300 is the first to go out:

Stl_phily's aggressive play takes him out next:

Next, I take out my wife, proving there is no love in poker:
Andybel and my son both go out on the same hand and it is the last hand at their table so I don't get a chance at a screenshot.

The young Ohlsen is out after a coin flip goes my way:

Bill knocks out Dave with the un-foldable hand:

The senior ohlsen takes out a short stacked Tom:

Rich takes out Senior Ohlsen:

I've turned up the aggression, but get caught and Rich takes me out:

Joe knocks out Bill on a miracle river card:

The final hand gives it to the Closer!

Thanks again for playing. We'll do it again next month.

Monday, November 10, 2008

FTOPS Event #9 Recap

Here's my screen shot from the first break. I won a couple of decent sized pots, moving up to as high as 5800 (starting stacks were 5000). I had a pro at my table: Berry Johnston, but he played super super tight. He only played maybe 1 hand every 3 or 4 orbits. Somehow, people didn't realize it and he doubled up twice when he got dealt pocket Aces twice in 3 hands.

Here's a hand that I got burned on. I actually played it poorly. I raised pre-flop, as I tried to quite often from the button and cutoff. Harlindo is wearing an FTOPS jersey, so I know he has to be a decent player, since he has won an FTOPS event before. He has ~4000 to start and I have ~8000 in chips. He smooth calls my raise. After the flop, he checks and I decide to check behind. The turn comes a blank (but does give me some interesting outs) and he checks again. Now, I decide to fire out to see where I am and I bet about 3/4 of the pot. He smooth calls. Now I put him on a straight draw like K10 or maybe A6 or A5. After the river hits, he checks and I insta-shove to put his tournament on the line. I figure, he missed whatever draw he could be on and without a Queen, he can't call for his tournament to be over. He made a good read, called and won. I should have checked it down and saved myself about 2800 in chips. Now I'm right around 4100 in chips.

I still have enough chips to play aggressive, so I chip up buying blinds and c-betting a few times when needed. After the 2nd break, I am just under the average chips by about 1000. You can see Berry hit his two AA double ups, and Harlindo has hardly played anything.

This next hand is when I took Harlindo out. The nice thing was that I was putting in standard raise sizes still. I think later in the tournament you need to start varying things up, but this was in the third hour and I kept all my raises the same, so when I came at the blinds from the cutoff, AGAIN, Harlindo fired back at me all in and it was an easy call for me.

My buddy Rich (TheCloserX5), who plays fairly tight, at least a lot tighter than I do, was below average in chips but not short stacked by any means. He raised the big blind, who smooth called, and then couldn't get away from this flop no matter what. He finishes in 2511th place.

This is an example of the shitty play you will see, even though we have almost half the field gone. This guy was not short stacked at all. I raise pre-flop, then check call after the flop and after the turn. He checks on the river and when I shove all in and he calls, I think I might be in trouble. NOPE! I guess he put me on a total bluff.

Here's another race I won. I'm only a 53/47% favorite. I don't think I have lost a race yet, where I am getting my chips in ahead. That is critical in being able to continue moving up the ranks.

This is right at the 3rd break and I am sitting in 8th place with over 1700 players left still. The nice thing here is that my pre-flop raises are winning more pots now just because of my stack size. I'm still folding to large re-raises and I'm barely playing anything out of position.

Here's another hand where I got in ahead and it held up. I can't tell you how many times that I held up with the best hand in this tournament, and we all know how rare that can seem sometimes.

Here's one where someone limps, I re-raise and get two callers. After the flop, the first player fires all in from a short stack, so insta-reraise all in trying to isolate. Of course when I get a call behind me I know I am in trouble. This takes me from about 72000 in chips down to 50000. It was enough to sting. Are you getting away from this hand after the flop? Maybe if you don't have the other two covered, but I couldn't see anyway that I am folding this, especially given my relevant chip size.

Here's another example of the fabulous play on here. We are down to almost 1300 players and mc_gambler has been very aggressive with all in moves. And especially coming from the button, I put him on a pretty wide range. He had over 20,000 in chips and I had just over 50000, but I figured this was a pretty easy pre-flop call. I didn't realize how easy, but it was a nice gift he gave me. Again, getting it in with the best hand held up.

Here's another big hand that held up. I was a 60% favorite getting it all in after the flop, but it felt like he had about 45 outs.

4th break. I'm very happy to be in 10th place. I was in first or 2nd for half of the last hour so I'm starting to get excited that I have a shot at taking this down. But there is a lot of poker still to go!

This hand costs me half my stack, taking me from over 100K down to 50K. I really screwed this up as it was unnecessary to go all in preflop with QQ here. Especially since the Ace came on the flop, there would be an opportunity for me to outplay the Kings or get away from the hand. Either way, I was getting too cocky that all my good hands were holding up and I didn't take into account that I could be behind pre-flop.

Here's an easy laydown where I raised the blinds and got re-popped from the small blind. Some people are shoving with any pair here, but I think that I would rather play post-flop for all my chips.

Break #5 and I've dropped in the rankings considerably. I've basically hovered around the same chip stack for most of the hour by buying some blinds. But I'm starting to feel real pressure to make something happen. This is not a good feeling as I don't want to lose focus. We are in the money though, so even if I go out now, it is not a total loss.

Here's a hand I would like your feedback on. I'm in the small blind with 70,000 in chips and the big blind has 72000. The button is short stacked with 19,000. The button limps in and I simply call. The big blind raises 3 1/2 times the BB and the button comes over him all in. I folded. Would you have? Of course this would have been a huge double up for me.

Here's a hand I raise and get a call from the button. A c-bet takes it down. But it sets me up for the next hand which happens to involve the same player.

Here the villain raises pre-flop 2 1/2 times the BB. I insta-shove, hoping to take down the pot with antes. He insta-calls and tables the might ACEJACK-OFF. I absolutely hated the flop and confirmed that on the turn. I think if I smooth call him we are both getting it in after the flop anyway. So it was my time to go home.

214th place not bad, but was disappointed I couldn't go deeper. The real money didn't start until about 86th place and you needed to final table to make it to 20K or higher. Maybe next time.

Feel free to point out all the mistakes I made.

Hope the tables are treating you right. Stay patient...

FTOPS Event #9 Cash

Definitely disappointed that I didn't make it further. I was in first place for a brief period, so that gave me visions of being able to take it down. I have screenshots and will do a full recap soon. I actually ended up winning 2 seats to this event: 1 for $75 and 1 for $11. That helps the ROI.
Congrats to Sprstoner for finishing at 101. I didn't recognize anyone else ahead of me.

Thursday, November 6, 2008

What would you do for $6.33 an hour?

What is it worth? Really? I mean, would you play poker for 5 hours for $3500? How about on a weeknight when you have to be up at 6:30am? Would you take 2 1/2 hours of sleep for $3500? I think most of us would say that is worth it. One rough day tired for $3500 is worth it. How about for $2100?
Now, let's say you intend to play for 5 hours for $3500, but only play for 3 hours and get $19.00. That's not worth it. No way. 4 1/2 hours of sleep later, you are left asking: "all that for $19.00?"
Oh, for the love of online poker! Is that why we do it? It must be. The thrill of making the right read and/or call. The overbet on the river with the nuts. For 3 hours we get the thrills of watching other players drop out who can't hang with the likes of us. But then, suddenly, it is over. And we get a measly $19.00 for it.
I got it all in with AJ versus QJ preflop, and the villain spiked a Queen. I don't mind though, as I was a 70% favorite. Even though I know that is going to happen 30% of the time, that doesn't tilt me anymore like it used to.
I'm sure I'll see you on the tables again tonight.
Stay patient....

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Free FTOPS seat!

If your looking to get into an FTOPS X event still, the MOOKIE is giving you a shot tonight. On top of the regular prize money, there will be 1 entry awarded to the first place finisher for FTOPS event #24.

Unfortunately, I won't make it. I'm going to the first round of the playoffs for my son's high school football team. He is still rehabbing his ACL from his recent surgery, so he won't be playing, but it should be a great game to watch just the same.

Stay patient (very, very patient for at least 4 years)....

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Did you?

Sent from my iPhone

Monday, November 3, 2008

Grinding it up

I am back playing at a highly confident level. I played in 9 tournaments this weekend and cashed in 3. I'll take a 30% ITM any day! My ROI was 212%. One of those 3 cashes was when I won a satellite that gave me entry to the Sunday 750K on FTP. It was so beautiful outside this weekend that I decided not to play and to keep the Tourney dollars. I am kind of torn about whether or not I should play in a tournament with a buy in that big. I know the nice thing is getting into a $216 buy in tournament for $8. Then again, that $216 will buy into a lot of tournaments if I'm playing at $26 or less for each one. Then I can continue grinding up my bankroll.
I decided to unregister from the FTOPS Event #7, following RaisingCayne's advice. I just wasn't comfortable playing a high stakes rebuy tournament right now. I am committing to grinding it out at the lower buy ins and I don't want to play something where I feel restricted right away because I don't want to do the rebuy or addon.
I am still thinking I will play in the FTOPS Event #9, $322 buy in event that I won for $75. I really want to take a shot at one FTOPS event this go around, even if I am going out of my bankroll comfort zone.

I was listening to Chris Moorman on a pocketfives' podcast. He made a great point about something that I had just figured out on my own (the expensive way). He was saying how many players will cash big in a tournament and then start playing over their heads and suddenly wipe out their bankroll 2 weeks later. You really need to have discipline with your bankroll management. He may cash for $60,000 but had just lost $40,000 over the last month. It's all relative, but a great player really focuses on their bankroll. Check out Chris' stats on Official Poker Rankings:

I had a hot run in August and September, but gave back almost half of it in October. But I was playing over my head. Instead of occasional $50+ buy in's, I was playing $75 -$200 buy in's and multi tabling them. That is simply too much for me. I have just recently gone back to focusing on smaller buy in tournaments, satellites, and SNG's. And I am multi-tabling less.
So if you are struggling, think about scaling back a bit. Play some smaller buy in tournaments. Also play some smaller fields. Like SNG's. There is not a much better ego boost than taking 1st place in a 9 or 18 player SNG. Just make sure you are managing that bankroll properly.
If you aren't listening to the poker podcasts available out there, you should be. There is some great content available at pokerroad, pocketfives, and even espn.
Stay patient....