Now let's get this over with. I am going to post something here that will make me feel like I am posting a picture of myself naked. Well, not that extreme, but almost as embarrassing. But I really need to look deep inside my poker game to find out what is wrong. Here are my SNG stats from Sharkscope:
First thing to notice is that I have not been consistent in either direction -well, until recently, consistently down. One of my problems I know of over the first 150 games was that I would build up from the $5 SNG's and then jump up to $11 or even $20 or $30 SNG's and lose back most of my profit quickly. Then I would settle back down and build up again from the $5 levels. I was not consistently winning enough at the $5 level to move up, but I would do it anyway and it always cost me.
But most alarming has been my stats over the last 70 games. I don't think you will see a graph like this posted anywhere else on a poker blog. Everyone wants to post how great they are doing and tell you why they run so goooot. But I need help. Serious help.
After about 25 games sliding downwards I usually tighten up and try to play ABC poker. After 50 games I become a rock. The last 20 games, I started limiting my plays to AA, KK, QQ and AK unless on the button or cutoff. And even in those positions, I played tight.
I could list all the hands I went out on, but what's the point? AK losing to 77. 77 losing to AK. Flush losing to boat. Could variance be this evil? I know I play aggressive at times, but lately have really tried to tighten up. My last 10 SNG's were all at the $2 buyin's 6 and 9 player tables. I did not cash 1 time. Really.
After finishing high in points over the BBT2 tournaments, I was starting to feel like I really progressed in 2007. But now I am beginning to wonder if I did luckbox my way into 4 final tables.
I mean, in 36% of the tournaments I played, I finished in the top 25% and half that time I made the final table. I only cashed 18% of the time, and managed to take 1st once. But wouldn't everyone like to cash in 18% of the tournaments they play in? Was I getting that lucky? My SNG stats are pointing to yes, the BBT2 was just luck. Or could variance be that strong. Granted, I have only logged 225 SNG's but now the last third of the games I have played has been a drastic downward spiral.
My goal now is to tighten up, play ABC poker and grind my way back to a profit and stay at the same level for awhile ($2 to start). Maybe then I can loosen up a bit. I don't know what else to do. Is there something else I am missing?
I need to get pokertracker set up on my new laptop. Maybe that will answer some questions. If you have any numbers on me that you could/would share from your stats, I would welcome them.
The nice thing is, I have a lot of room to improve this year. It surely can't get worse than the last 70 SNG's I have played.
Stay patient.....
4 comments:
If you think those are bad, then don't look at my sharkscope stats.
listen chief... believe it or not, you said it yourself...
I haven't looked at your sharkscope stats yet, other than the graph here. you move up to the $10's $20's and $30's too fast.
When you win a $5 6 person tourny, you get how much for first? $23? Lose one $30 and you go negative net after winning half your tournies.
you look at that sharkscope graph and decide to play AA, KK, AK, QQ.. you are not playing your poker. You are now playing defensively and with emotion.
Stay patient, and leave emotion out of it. and stay at the $5's until you reach a profitability level that you have set for yourself. Once you reach that, move up to the $11. then set another goal. then the $22's. Then set another goal.
You pwn these things, get after it
You game sounds like mine. My SharkScope is looking similar to yours. I run it up for a while playing solid poker then move up and lose my run up.
My November numbers are on my blog.
I ran it up good in one month. Then I found the $10 sngs and ran a lot of it back down. I moved to the big table long before I was ready.
I guess I don't have anything encouraging to say other than I will be watching your results and actions to see if they will help me.
Jamy,
First, I'm leaving this comment without knowing what your graph looks like (my workplace blocks all images from blogger...yeah, thanks douchebag workplace).
Anyways, I've spent the majority of my time playing these levels with mild success (check mclarich under FullTilt for stats), so I'd be willing to chat about this with you sometime. I will say I don't have any kind of set strategy for these levels but maybe I can help out nonetheless.
I will admit that I'm starting to think that the best way to build your bankroll at these levels is via the 90seat doublestacks & the $3 doublestack turbo knockouts. Especially in the first one, it's fairly easy to cash but the payoff for first place is significantly higher.
Hit me up on Yahoo IM (ralphwiggum4pres) or email at ralphwiggum4pres dot yahoo dot com sometime. Best of luck!
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