Survivor Post #5

When I got home I started firing off emails but everyone was asleep. I asked what happened and played as dumb as I could. “Was Jordan double crossing us?” I asked Goat. I shot an email to Heff “What happened?” I did find Very Josie up so I sent her an IM. It went like this:

broncohawk7: hey
Very Josie: omg jamy
Very Josie: unbelievable
Very Josie: did u know that was coming?
broncohawk7: yes
broncohawk7: but not until too late
broncohawk7: to do something
broncohawk7: not to worry
broncohawk7: you are still good
Very Josie: who replaces jordan?
Very Josie: i was poetry in motion tonight!
Very Josie:
broncohawk7: lol
broncohawk7: you did good
Very Josie: bout time
Very Josie: we needed it
Very Josie: first and second go team fish
broncohawk7: yeah
broncohawk7: i was surprised because there were a few people lobbying hard to keep jordan. i was one
broncohawk7: so thought we would
broncohawk7: until jordan went out
broncohawk7: then it was decided
Very Josie: is kat in good with goat?
broncohawk7: you hear from anyone on Team Donk yet?
broncohawk7: kat = goat
broncohawk7: yearh
Very Josie: yeah thought so
Very Josie: no haven't heard from anyone
Very Josie: sunday night should be very interesting
broncohawk7: you will hear from someone soon, trying to dupe you
Very Josie: dude im telling you now im sticking with u
Very Josie: no reason not too
Very Josie: theyd only use me for a couple weeks tops
Very Josie: theyre too tight
broncohawk7: we are good.
Very Josie: you better stik with me and boat
broncohawk7: i know what's going on
Very Josie: we can get iaatg too u know
broncohawk7: keep him warm. we will be good
broncohawk7: gotta go
broncohawk7: talk to you tomorrow
Very Josie: k
Very Josie: just writing up my post
Very Josie: trying to make it quick

I told her I knew about it because I didn’t want to seem too weak to her. I didn’t want her to know I was blindsided that bad. I also planted the seed that someone from Team Donkey would be contacting her because I knew Goat would try to smooth out some alliance with her.

The next morning I got an email from Goat:

Actually, some voting for Mucht and some Brain was Jordan's idea, not mine.

I guess the best way to describe what happened was that Jordan was playing so many angles we hadn't even thought of, it got us wondering what other angles he was playing we weren't even seeing.  He just seemed too strong of a player both on the poker side and esp. the Survivor side.  I think he's watched every season.  Paranoid to be sure, but the thinking was better safe than sorry and we enlisted Brain/Mucht.

Sorry not to bring you in on it, but as it was Jordan that brought you to our five, we couldn't be 100% that you wouldn't tell him.  Also sorry that this kind of bones the plans you were talking about. Thing is, there still not much reason you can't still do a final four with us if you are willing to throw in with us.  I understand if you would be gunshy, but honestly it still seems like the best chance for all of us.  Let me know what you think.

I emailed back:

I'm totally good with final staying with our original group. I think we should vote off the Fish and then we go from there with Team Donkey. I thought we were always doing what you wanted anyway. I didn't realize Jordan was orchestrating something different.

I played the tournament last night away from home, and was driving when it was time to vote. Jordan texted it was time to vote and told me that you said we are to vote for Muchtim instead of Brain. I thought it was weird but didn't have time to ask, so I just voted from my phone. Scary that he was setting this all up but then working a bunch of different angles.

So you have Heff, Kat, me and you final 4? And we are voting out Team Fish first right? I don't see any reason to give them an opening by voting Brain or Mucht first like Jordan was saying we should. Especially if Brain and Mucht will vote with whatever you tell them. But that's up to you.

Let me know.

Goat:

Jamy,

To be fair, Jordan may well have just been acting in our group's interests and we may have gotten paranoid.  It was his idea last night to split our vote Muchtim/Brain, so it is interesting to me that he couched it as me saying to do it, but I did say "OK" to that simply because by that point it didn't matter, so maybe that's how he meant it.  Jordan's smart, he's a competitor, and he clearly knew Survivor strategy much more than anybody else in the game.  I guess we just decided to make the percentage play and eliminate a dangerous player.  Might make our next IM conversation awkward . . ..

In any event, it doesn't matter much now, it's done.  We have Brain/Muchtim firmly in the donkey tent (which we wanted) and can just shoot Fish in their barrel if you like, then we're off to the final four.

I was trying to separate myself as quickly as possible from Jordan. The more they saw me as tight with Jordan the more they may think I’ll pull a vendetta play. I had to make a move fast. As far as I know, I am the next vote out. I could be wrong because I was trying to downplay my strengths both in the tournaments and in the game. I was also trying to always make sure someone else was making the decisions. Ideally, you get far into this game floating along as a non-threat and then pouncing when you are down to 3 or 4 players. But I did not trust Goat now.

A play had to be made. I was about to change the entire game drastically or go home.

Then Very Josie and I had this conversation:

Very Josie:

We still have an alliance but we need a new plan.  Get your thinking cap on!  Right now I have 4 fish against 6 donks - you join us, and we're 5 against 5.  Who can you bring over that we can trust to have the majority?

Jamyhawk:

Goat is running everything right now. Duh...
He wants to vote you out next.
Let me try to get someone to go with me and we can vote Goat out this Sunday.
Don't tell anyone yet what/who we are doing. Just confirm with Team Fish that you will all vote the same and that you are working with someone on Team Donkey to get a majority vote.
If Goat gets wind, he has too many people in his pocket and you or I will be out next.
This week is probably our only shot to get Goat out. After that, he will have too many votes to ever be overthrown again and will probably end up final 2 and win it.

Very Josie was obviously on board. She worked Team Fish and assured me that they will all vote for goat. She was very anxious to know what I had done yet, but I told her not to worry. I have a plan and I will get us that other vote. So I shot this off to Muhctim:

Goat is running everything right now. You know that. He has had an alliance with Heff and Kat from the start and Jordan and I agreed to vote with them since the first tournament. He promised Jordan final 3 but I guess felt Jordan was too big a threat to go through with it.

He has had you on the short list to vote out every night up until last night. He told me he didn't contact you until just recently to put the plan in motion to get rid of Jordan (may be true or may not be).

We know Goat will probably win the whole thing. It is his game, he controls the votes, and he is playing all the angles. He is the King of Donkey Island.

We have 1 shot, I believe to change everything. If we vote him out this week. We know Team Fish is desperate. They will all vote together for 1 Donkey. If I vote with them, there will be a 5-5 tie. Then we will have some kind of tiebreaker and who knows what will happen? If you vote Goat, then Goat goes home and we have 5 Donkeys vs 4 Fish. We still have the majority and can vote out the remaining Fish. I'll leave that up to you, because as far as I'm concerned you can run the show then.

I know I am not a threat to win this game at all. And I really don't think you are seen as one either. We could control the voting for the rest of the game if you agree to take out Goat this week. We could take out the rest of the Fish, then Heff and Kat, then it would be you, me and Brain final 3.

If you mention this email to Goat or anyone else, I am probably next out. But trust me, you are not far behind. The best you could finish is final 4. But you will never beat Goat. You can beat me if we are heads up for the final vote.

This week is probably our only shot to get Goat out. After that, he will have too many votes to ever be overthrown again and will probably end up final 2 and win it.

So what do you say?

He responded:

If anyone sees your email, it will not be because I sent it.  Give me a day to think.  There is some truth in what you say.

I was able to get Muhctim on IM that same night but he was having trouble with his keyboard and asked me to call him. . . OK, that was weird. I never spoke to anyone (other than on Teamspeak where everyone listening to BDR could hear me). Now I was going to speak to someone on the phone. I was nervous. But I had a great conversation with Muhctim and he was starting to see things my way. I really pushed the fact that we could never win against Goat. If we voted him off now, we have a shot to go to final 2. Think about it: Muhctim and me vote with Fish to take Goat out. Then we enlist Brain and take out the Fish one by one. Then we 3 vote out Heff and Kat, and then fight it out final 3. That was very doable, right?

But then he started offering another option. What if we vote 1 Team Fish first and then vote Goat out. Fish will be weakened and then we can still flip on Goat. And then he wanted to bring Brain in. “Why not tell Brain, he will think of it logically and we can make this work together”. Uh oh, I said. I didn’t like the way this was going. On the show survivor there is always a moment where you can blindside the King of Vote Control and if the contestants decide to wait a week, it ALWAYS backfires. The King uses his power to get different votes or wins immunity or talks someone into giving them their immunity idol. It ALWAYS ALWAYS happens. You have to strike them down when you can.

We HAD to vote off Goat now. There may never be another chance. Finally, I thought to say to Muhctim that “Goat could win immunity next tournament and then our plan fails” and I think he got it. He still didn’t want to commit so we had agreed to wait until the day of the tourney to speak again. He also informed me that the plan is to vote me off next. Great! My future was now in Muhctim’s hands. He had already cast one vote for me and then voted out my alliance behind my back. But I thought he was starting to see what was possible if we turned the tables.

I shot off an email to VJ that I like our chances and went to bed.

The next morning: Paranoia is sweeping me. Why did Goat not respond to my last email (asking him to tell me what to do about VJ)? Who is he trying to turn? Turtle? Aquaman? Is VJ against me now? This game will drive you crazy. I decide to shoot another email to VJ to set up a scenario so she isn’t swayed by Goat.

I think Goat is going to approach Team Fish with an offer to keep himself intact this Sunday.
I was thinking about this and the only thing I can figure he will offer is to vote me off this week and keep Team Fish intact. It only makes sense as that is the only offer he can make to you. Then on Sunday night he will vote out 1 Team Fish knowing that Team Donkey still has the numbers to vote out Team Fish but he still controls enough votes to vote me off if he gets suspicious.

If he convinces just one person on Team Fish to cast their vote for me, then he knows there will not be enough votes to vote him out. We have to have everyone on Team Fish, plus my vote, plus one other. Think about how much power that gives him. He is locked in for sure if he doesn't go out this week.

I'll tell you but don't tell everyone else that it's Muhctim that I think will vote with us. I had a long phone conversation with him last night and he said he likes the idea. We can vote out Goat, then Heff, then Brain, then Kat (that is if you and Boat will stay true to me and Muhctim).

I guarantee you I will not write down your name or Boats as a vote. But we are ALL screwed if we don't vote Goat out this week. How solid do you think Turtle and Aquaman are?

Jamyhawk

Maybe I was going over the top. Maybe this was all in vein as they are voting me out no matter what. How awesome would Immunity be Sunday night?

Very Josie emailed me back that I am good. And yes, Goat had contacted her.

I sent an email to Goat:

What do you want me to tell VJ? She is asking what happened. I figured she should be the first person we vote for.

Here was his reply almost 24 hours later (a long time for Goat to respond):

Oh nuts, I missed this in my inbox.

Sorry to leave you hanging.  I don't really know what angle to take on Josie, but keep cultivating the "alliance" would be my suggestion. We can get into a Donkey chat this weekend and decide which fishy we want to hook first.

Go team Donk!

Goat did not miss my email. He needed time to contact VJ and then figure how to respond to me. Unfortunately, this email confirmed to me I am the next one on the chopping block. At least from Goat’s perspective I was going out.

Now I started thinking if I should contact Brain. Desperation is starting to creep in. I feel like VJ will stick with me and get 4 votes for Goat. My vote makes 5. And I think Muhctim will come around and vote Goat out. But what if Muhctim can’t decide and Brain would have flipped. Shouldn’t I make a stab at contacting him?

Tournament #7 $1 rebuy (rebuy period shortened to only 30 minutes).

Sunday Muhctim called me and said he was in. I was thrilled. I emailed VJ and she was thrilled. But again, I had to ask her "are you sure we are good?". Even though, she said yes, I was still nervous it was going to be me going home. What if Goat promised VJ final 4. I promised final 5. I thought again about contacting BrainMC in case we needed another vote, but eventually I decided to trust the alliance I had set up.

Again with the rebuys. Yuck. I decided to play it differently this week. I tried to donk around as much as I can showing a very loose style and then tighten up later. But that didn’t work out so well. We had 26 players and I went out around 17^th. I felt good about the chips I had after the rebuy period ended. But then every raise I missed the flop or someone put too much pressure back on me so I had to fold. I got outplayed big time.

This hand was terrible: I raised with a 25 bb stack behind and for about the 15^th time someone reraised me. This time it was Bayne and I forgot that he only plays the nuts. I shoved to his raise and he insta-called with AA. My 99 left me on fumes. I was out shortly after. It was a terrible play, even Hawkette looked at the screen and asked “why did you shove there with 99?”. Who knows. And the worst part, was that I was staying up until the end no matter what to find out about the voting. So I had nothing to do but wait, wait, wait.

Finally, the votes came in:

Goat

SmBoatdrinks ßlooks like I won’t be going home

Goat

SmBoatdrinks ßsome question still, but if boat got votes I think Goat is going….

Goat

Goat

Goat

Goat

Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

We pulled it off

How nerve wracking. Now, how do I keep from being the next target?

Somehow, a vote went for Numbono. I found out later that Buddy now casts any uncasted votes for Numbono. So who didn’t vote? That could really screw up a plan if you need 6 votes and 1 person just forgets to vote.

The next morning, I started emailing around to see where we were. I asked Muhctim what he wanted to do. I sent an email to BrainMC (and copied Muhctim) to let him know what happened to lead up to the vote of Goat and why I didn’t tell him.

Heff sent out this email to all of Team Donkey:

"How did things ever get so far? I don't know. It was so unfortunate, so unnecessary. Tattaglia lost a son and I lost a son. We're quits. And if Tattaglia agrees, then I'm willing to let things go on the way they were before... ...I hoped that we would come here and reason together. And as a reasonable man, I'm willing to do whatever's necessary to find a peaceful solution to these problems."
     -Don Corleone, The Godfather, 1972.

OK, things got a little silly in the last week.

Somehow this whole group of donkeys managed to take what was a chokehold of control on this game -  and we all decided to let Team Fish get into our heads, split up a solid voting block, and work their way back from the brink while watching us shoot ourselves silly. Those four must be laughing at how easy it was, sigh....

It's not important how or why - that's past.
The only important issue in the present, is that there are still five Donkeys and only four Fish.
And while this is technically an individual free-for-all, team affiliation is just as good as anything else to base a working relationship around.

I propose we all pull a Voltron and work together for one last go-round, for the next four tourneys, and make sure each night a Fish is voted off.
It doesn't matter who or in what order - that can be decided night of the events once immunities are won and whatnot - so long as we vote together and maintain a majority.

And once the five of us remain, then we're free to go our separate ways and puzzle it out from there.

No illusions, pretenses, fluffy sales pitches, or begging not to be voted off here from me. I can't roll that way.

This is just a reasonable, face value business arrangement that guarantees all us remaining Donkeys a deep run.

"I'm going to take a nap. When I wake up, if the money is on the table, I'll know I have a partner. If it isn't, I'll know I don't."
    -Hyman Roth, The Godfather Part II, 1974

Heffmike

Interesting thing was BrainMC responded right away with this:

I agree, I don't know what the hell happened......I voted for Numb.  I'm down for shooting some fishies in the barrel and taking the donkeys to the final 5.

He never replied to my email. Did he not want to have to lie to me? Was he pissed that I voted off Goat? Did he just not see it? I don’t get it. I made sure to let Muhctim know. Muhctim felt he can talk to BrainMC so he said to give him a day and he will call me again. I really felt that Brain and Muhctim would be a good alliance. But if Brain is waffling, maybe he needs to go.

Muhctim said that Turtle contacted him and was trying to pry into our alliance as well so we could go that direction if we needed to. I emailed VJ to keep those lines open. She asked that we vote Heff or Kat next. I told her that won’t happen. It will be a fish but I’ll let her pick which one.

This was her reply:

Ugh.  I dunno.  Lemme think on it a bit.  Aquaman or Heff????  You don't think keeping heff around till Sunday will hurt us?

I told her we could get Heff on Sunday night, but it will be a fish this Wednesday. We agreed to talk again later.

Kat emailed me and suggested we take out Josie next. Ooooh. Girl on Girl action.

Brain never responded to my email. He did suggest in an email to the group that we simply vote out the first fish out of the Mookie. No alliances other than Team Donkey. Nothing personal. First one out goes. It was actually Heff’s idea, but Brain forwarded it out. I really did not like randomly voting out someone. We need a plan.

VJ emailed me again and asked that I take out Kat next. I didn’t want to be so blunt with her, but I just could not vote out a Donkey yet. I know that the Donkey’s are scared to vote out one of our own. It has to be a fish. I know that the fish are all scared they are down in numbers so are trying to huddle together. If I can convince VeryJosie (and smboatdrinks) to vote with me and Muhctim, we can control the vote.

VJ and I had an IM conversation that went on for quite a while. She was adamant about wanting Kat out. She even said I owe her one since she took out Goat for me. Wait a minute. Her alliance was going home, not me. She kept pushing saying that all the fish can vote for Kat and if I do too, then Kat goes home. I started thinking: what if they 4 vote for Kat, Muhc and I vote for Aquaman, and Heff, Kat and Brain vote for *anyfish*. Kat will go home and the teams will be 4 Fish vs 4 Donkey. Although, that doesn’t give all the power to the Fish, it would be mess things up. I mentioned this scenario to VeryJosie and stated it would cause our alliance to fracture and she got very defensive.

She said, “well who made you el presidente?” and “I didn’t know our alliance was so fragile”.  Maybe I was being too paranoid. If we took off Kat this Wednesday, we could vote off xkm Sunday still. I just couldn’t see letting the Fish get close to numbers of the Donkeys. I felt the Donkeys left were not conniving enough to be dangerous. VJ was making me nervous. Maybe I just vote her off and be done with it. Seems everyone else left is nowhere as dangerous as her.

This is the email she sent me the next morning:

Jamy, I was thinking all morning and although I'm not crazy about your idea, i think it's the best case for now.  Boat and I will vote XKM - I just confirmed this with him, but only because you promise Kat on Sunday.  I am hoping your a man of your word.

Final Four baby!

Boat and I are in!

So I asked Michtim if we should stick with the plan or what?

VeryJosie makes me nervous. But I don't see anyone else we could count on to go to final 4 with. Brain is a "no response". Heff will stick with Kat and probably Brain.

Here is a scenario for you: VeryJosie makes a play at you tonight. She knows that if Heff, Kat and Brain all vote for VeryJosie and you and I vote xkm, her 4 fish could vote for you, and win due to our fraction from Donkey. Scary. (or they could vote for me).

Maybe we need to make sure we vote with Donkey tonight to insure 5 intact votes. Ideally it is xkm or turtle. Then we vote Kat off Sunday (or Heff). And we stay in control. We really need a third person we can trust.

Jamyhawk

I opened up the communication for the first time with Smboatdrinks. I wanted to make sure he knows we are tight for this alliance (if we stick with it).

So you all good with the plan? I promised VJ we are good. I want to make sure you know we are too.

Jamyhawk

Yea, she says you're guaranteeing Final 4, so even though I'm still nervous after getting those votes Sunday I guess it makes the most sense.

Boat

You wont go tonight. Or anytime soon as long as I can help. I explained to VJ that with us 4 voting together, no one can overtake our votes. We can go all the way to final 4.

You only got votes Sunday because Goat knew you and VJ are in an alliance and wanted to break it up.

We are good now. Kat is guaranteed getting our votes on Sunday.

Jamyhawk

There are times when I ask “how much are we playing for again?” Maybe this isn’t worth it. Ughhhhhh. All the stress and back and forth, trying to watch out for backstabbing.

So Muhctim calls me about 4 hours before the tournament and says what if we vote Kat tonight, and then xkm Sunday? VeryJosie will trust us and we really need to build trust. Team Donkey has no interest in trusting us. We know that for a fact. But if VJ really needs assurance we can be trusted, why not Kat tonight, then xkm on Sunday. If VJ screws we are screwed anytime –now –later –makes no difference. We need to build trust. And if we make it look like she is calling the shots, then it takes heat off of us. I mean we don’t have anything with Team Donkey. They just want to vote off the Fish because they are Fish. Then Muhctim and I will be 4^th and 5^th left out.

So I fire off this email to VJ:

I've been thinking.

I want to make sure you know that Muhc and I are solid 100%. We need to get to final 4. I emailed Boat and he said he was a bit nervous.
What if I give you control tonight. You call it. Kat or xkm. Then we vote the other one out on Sunday. As long as we are in agreement that those are the next two.

This way you know I can be trusted. And if we vote Kat tonight, we all vote out a Fish Sunday so I know you can be trusted.

It's a big move but one I don't think anyone expects having 2 Fish alinged with 2 Donkeys. And like I said before, we take the vote all the way to the final 4.

What do you think?

Her response:

Jamy this is great news.  You know I wasn't comfortable with a fish vote tonight.  Kat tonight and I'll kiss you if I ever see you.  I can handle voting a fish out sunday.

So hopefully we build some trust with VJ and secure our final 4.