Here's the situation: I bought in to a $22 No Limit tournament on Pokerstars. 73 total entrants. We are in the first level and I am dealt QQ. As Oh Captain recently said: "In the early stages of bar poker, I hate to go crazy to early with hands like QQ." This wasn't bar poker, but the theory still applies. QQ is a premium hand but nobody likes to go home in the first level because you couldn't get away from a premium hand.
UTG+1 limps and I raise 3x the original bet to make it $120. I know this won't scare off many hands early in the tournament but I'm certainly not limping behind here either. The button calls, the small blind calls, and the original limper calls.
Four handed, we see a flop of 8s7d9d. The original limper bets about 60% of the pot. So what does he have with a limp/call/cbet?
Here's the first tricky point. Do you auto fold here? I don't see how you can. That is just too nitty.
Do you call and see where this goes? That provides you with zero information. He fires a bet on the turn, regardless of the card. So what do you know? Nothing. Really, a call here and you are hoping for a Queen on the turn. Nothing else makes you comfortable.
So to find out what he has, let's raise it up. We can't min raise with 2 to act behind us. But a shove is not necessary either. Here is where some "Math Poker" people might disagree with me. I wanted to still have some chips left just in case. But I felt my hand was strong enough to raise here. But you might say "You are pot committed if he shoves. The odds are such that you HAVE to call." But in a freeze out tournament, I think you are never pot committed. Yes, there are times when you should call regardless of your cards. But first round, I think you can build back since I will have 30 BB's left, even if it is only for another 5 minutes. So I raise to $750 or 2 1/2 times his raise.
So what am I raising against? AA, KK, AK, JJ? Or maybe 77, 88, 99? If we figure the cards that would limp call then we can look at Pokerstove for a range of about 21% or this:
But then I start thinking, what am I really ahead of here? What am I really hoping he has? JJ or 1010? I don't think he has KK or AA. Why not re-raise me pre-flop with those. But there are a lot of hands that dominate me. So if I plug into pokerstove the range of cards I expect him to call my shove with (including the overcard or paired draws), then I only have 23.9% equity.
Now that I've probably completely confused the situation: What would you do?
Fold?
Call?
Raise?
Shove?
11 comments:
I call. I think you're ahead but want to be sure the next card isn't a diamond, a ten or a jack before shoving.
Agree with Waffles. This is a shove / fold situation. Min raising like that leaves you forcing yourself to call a shove with what would likely be at best a coin flip situation; call $675 to win ~$4k. Likely hands that he shows up with IMO: Ad8d, T9, JT, 65, AdTd, sets, two pair, etc.
I think you're asking yourself the right question: What do you hope he has that you can beat right now? I don't think he's showing up with AA, KK where he took a limp / call line with a raiser and 2 callers. I have to imagine he'd be back raising to "thin the herd." It's possible AdKd would likely be doing the same.
I think you fold the $300 donk lead, as this board texture is terrible for a 4-way flop with one to act. You give up the $510 pot and look to exploit a donk bet by villain later.
FWIW, I think this is an appropriate time to donk lead if I hit a monster on this board like the villain supposedly has. There are going to be a lot of cards that could hit the turn which may either kill my action or scare me as well. I would be looking to get it in as soon as possible.
This is a tricky one, but I lean toward folding or maybe flat calling. If I flat call, its to take the hand away on the turn. I'm looking for a situation where the other players fold, and then a scare card comes. It also depends on the size of the bettor's turn bet. I don't love folding straight away here, so overall, I'm leaning to call.
So far it's call or fold in this situation?
I raised to find out exactly where I am but you all are saying I should already know I am way behind or way ahead?
I just can't see flat-ing for no information or nit folding here.
I think calling with these stack sizes is very bad. Say we just call and get one other caller, any 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, T, J, K, A or any diamond are all scare cards. Calling gives the button and the sb odds to draw or they may shove with their draw, and then if the Original limper (OL) calls we have a very difficult decision.
With these stack sizes, I don't like raising either. If we raise and the button, sb, OL, or all three call or shove what do we do? Do we fold after putting in almost 1/2 our stack into the pot?
If we started with 3k, I would raise the flop bet to around 950 and see what happens. This would leave us room to get away from the hand.
In my opinion, shoving would be the best option if we are going to continue with the hand. It could chase away draws and may win the hand right there. This option also puts any draws to a decision instead of them shoving and putting us in a tough spot.
With one player left to act, another who may be checking with a big hand, and the OL leading into us on a scary board, I like folding here. We only have 120chips invested and would be left with around 40bbs. 20bbs or less I shove.
Meant to add Fold>Shoving>Raising>Calling
A lot of fail in here IMO. I flat this IP or fold 100% of the time. His range is so made up of hands that crush us or are flipping with us and virtually no hands that we dominate. He is donking into 4 opponents with a flop that smashes a limp/call range.
I will caveat that "raising for information" is probably my biggest pet peeve expression. We are raising for value or as a bluff. Since a worse hand is probably never folding we are only raising for value if we raise.
Personally I look at his bet as one of two things, TPTK possibly with a flush draw as well or a made straight. The hands I think he would limp call with are something like A9 or A10 suited, 10-9, J-10 and maybe 10-10 if he is playing carefully at the start. Generally he has a hand he wants to see a flop with and one that has value with multiple players in it. If he played something like 9-8 or 8-8 I think he pushes harder with both the flush and straight draws out there. But with a J-10 I think he may want to both keep someone in the pot and wait for the turn to see if any scare cards hit. Unfortunately with the stack sizes as they are you are really caught between a rock and a hard place. You can push but he almost always calls with most of those holdings. So a reraise only works if he is on a straight bluff which is highly doubtful. Also there 2 others left to act who might be slowplaying J-10 or have A9 or 99.
Which to me only gives you 2 options, call or fold. You call and you have options on the next card or if one of the other 2 goes crazy and reraises. Or you can fold and still have over 50 BB and time to wait for a better flop next time to push. Heads up with this guy I like your reraise as you do have time to rebuild if he puts it all in (which he very well could with Ad-10d not to mention a set or 2 pair) but with possibly 3 others still in the pot I can't justify adding to the pot. So I don't think folding is a bad way out even though you might have the best hand at the time.
Anyone who says call is just spewing fucking chips. STFU. Calling gets you what? You know no more. What are you then going to do when he slams the turn or a scary card comes? Your just going to fold there so why waist your fucking money. Only reason to call is if you have a redraw or have the ability to get a really big redraw. No way you should just call with your pair here. I know folding sounds weak but it is the strongest move I think.
I don't see it as calling for no information. I see it as calling so you can get more information on the turn.
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