Or better yet, what would you do?
Level 5 of a tournament that usually lasts 12 levels, so almost halfway there. You have been playing great. You make a few tough laydowns, you make a few reraises with air at the right points and get paid off. You have 35 BB's with 200/400/50 blinds. There are 25 people left of the 36 that started. 5 get paid, but every spot higher you finish you do get points towards end of the year prizes.
UTG raises to 800. You have KsKh. You make it 2000. It folds back to UTG who just calls.
UTG player is loose aggressive. He rarely wins a tournament; he is usually out before the 4th level; he plays questionable all the time.
Flop comes 8910 rainbow. He bets out $4,000 into a $4600 pot. You count out $12,000 left. What do you do?
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5 comments:
Spot's sucks b/c there's a ton of hands in a LAG's range that are basically flipping with an overpair.
It really depends on just how bad/laggy he is pre and post flop. Would he donk into you with silly hands he shouldn't have here OOP in a reraised pot (K9, A8) or try to blow you off a pretty obvious overpair - instead of betting all his value range (every pair/draw combo and sets/straights)
You don't mention his stack size here either, but your description makes it sound like UTG doesn't pay attention to that anyway.
Most players are not going to bet into you here without a huge hand/draw - it's a polarized spot. You're basically hoping he has QQ/air, b/c almost every other reasonable hand is in great shape regardless of how hard you hit this board.
I guess what I'm saying, if even if UTG is misplaying the hell out of this spot with air or Ace-paint, he's put you in a bind leading out and you have to go with a gut feeling. Calling is ugly (unless you're going to get it in on the turn regardless of the card) and it feels like a fold or jam spot.
I soulread and flip a coin. I probably jam at the table but fold when I have time to think about it after the fact.
Too much babbling, I'm sure :-)
I like the babbling. Lots of thoughts like I had.
Chip stacks were nearly identical. He had about 1.5BB more than me.
I agree, I never call there. It's shove or fold. I just couldn't get myself to fold.
I was kind of fishing this story to see if someone would say I should fold there and why. I just couldn't do it. But I did think for a second, what hands would he C-bet with. AK, AQ, QQ, JJ were all possibilities. So was 10J, Q10, and of course all the hands that beat me.
In the end, I hoped he had AK or AQ and I shoved. He insta-called with 89sooted and I went home.
This blog still needs a name change
that's a rough spot because I think he shows AT as often as he shows 89 just by your description.
I would say he is definitely not semi-bluffing with that bet. He either has a hand that has you buried or a TPTK he suddenly thinks is great depending on his opinion of how often you bluff.
I like how he bet into you here though... like what kinda moron is gonna bet the made straight? Most people are gonna check-call for value on that board...
I think it's hard to get away from this hand even though "all you have is a pair"... if your folding that spot then your folding to every bluff that comes your way unless you have the stone cold nuts... only way you fold is if you have a solid read... but those are hard to listen to..
Like in the WPBT I had 66 and flop comes A6x... and I fucking knew my opponent had AA... but I just could not pull the trigger on my gut feeling so I jammed it in and said goodbye..
Yo -- I might be playing poker this afternoon/evening at Harrah's St. Louis. Give me a call at 217-637-7500 if this might be apossibility for you -- and if you see this today.
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